Industry Leader Forecast

Oh, if only we had crystal balls. Think about it. We could see into the future and be prepared for those late-coming springs or the newest product trend or the economy's ups and downs. It would make life a little boring, but our financials would look a lot better.

Since we haven't yet tapped into the supernatural, we thought a collection of educated guesses would be the next best thing, and hence Lawn & Garden Retailer's second annual "Industry Leader Forecast." We polled several of your peers, and I snuck in some predictions of my own, on what they think will be the biggest issues facing independent garden centers over the coming year. From economic changes to customer service to buying habits, find out what to look for in 2004.

The Store's the Brand . . . Go for the Heart!

Reflecting on John Stanley's comments at the 2003 ANLA Management Clinic, I think one of our greatest challenges as independent garden centers is to develop a store brand that differentiates, updates and creates value. We must differentiate from commodity retailing -- shift the demand from quantity to quality, with a focus on experience retailing. Successful garden centers are branding their stores with lifestyle-based merchandising, selling the shopping experience and the outcome, not just the product. 

Scott Talgo, a brand strategist says, "A brand that captures your mind gains behavior. A brand that captures your heart gains commitment." We must get emotional in our retailing by offering escape, aesthetics, entertainment and education. You don't go to Wal-Mart to escape! We're in the people business. At Bachman's we're using our own growers and horticulturists in our advertising to share their insights on how to maximize success and value with the products we offer.

I attended the National Garden Center Organization's Retail Road Show in California this fall. The impact of people on a store's brand was clear. At Whiting Nursery in St. Helena, Calif., customers greeted familiar sales consultants with big hugs and questions about what's new in the garden. During a very busy fall festival special event at Orchard Nursery and Florist in Lafayette, Calif., the knowledgeable staff was having fun working together with precision teamwork and enthusiasm to serve families who were joyfully participating in and purchasing everything that was being offered. I recently had an opportunity to visit Nicholson-Hardie in Dallas, Texas. After observing a very enthusiastic buyer-merchandiser assist guests in the holiday department, my eye was drawn to Nick, one of the two store cats, who was sitting on a counter surrounded by a group of adoring guests. I was presented with one of Nick's business cards complete with a stamped paw print.

These stores and their brands certainly captured my heart. They are moving away from a transactional relationship with their customers to a transformational one, and having fun in the process. If garden centers would make this a focus for 2004, we would see dramatic effects throughout the industry.

-- Dale Bachman,

Bachman's Floral, Home and Garden,

Minneapolis, Minn.

Improving economies and discretionary dollars

With a continually improving economy in 2004, consumer spending will increase, and the market for "want" categories like L&G will be stronger than in the past two years.

That said, the competition for the consumer's dollar will also increase, and the mass marketers will continue to attract their share of that dollar through price value focus and promotion. The need for the independent garden center to build strong, non-price value differentiation has never been more important.

How to identify and communicate this differentiation will be the single most important and challenging opportunity for the independent garden center in 2004. There's no one common answer for everyone. Hard work, determination and understanding both your business and your customer provide major opportunities ahead for 2004.

In most areas of the country, there hasn't been a "normal" weather pattern over the past few years, and I doubt we have the ability to predict what Mother Nature has in store for us in 2004. Our challenge is to be able to react quickly and nimbly to whatever she serves up. A plan is just that . . . an anticipated action to an expected condition. But when that condition changes, we need to be able to quickly shift gears. Plans are only guidelines; don't be afraid to modify them in the middle of the season. Stay flexible -- with your buy plans and your advertising -- to take full advantage of the hand you're dealt.

-- Stan Pohmer,

Pohmer Consulting Group,

Minnetonka, Minn.

The Importance of Plant Material

One of the challenges that garden centers will be facing is the devaluation of plant material. We're seeing more and more retailers competing on price -- and once you go down that road, it's very difficult to turn around and charge what the products are really worth. It's critical that we help consumers understand the value of plants. Study after study of shopping behavior tells us that when the consumer perceives a product or brand to be of superior quality, they do not mind paying more than they would for a generic commodity.

We all know how much time, labor and materials go into developing plant varieties, propagating them and growing them to be healthy so that consumers are successful in their gardens. Let's be sure to remind the gardening public through educational brochures and posters for consumers, as well as training seminars for garden center staffs.

-- Susie Usrey,

Monrovia Growers,

Azusa, Calif.

All-around improvements

Everyone wants to say labor, the weather or finding certain plants are the biggest challenges. But for me, the biggest challenge is trying to figure out how to improve my garden center. How can I make my garden Á center a better place to work, and how can I make my garden center a better place to shop?

First of all, we need to accept the fact that change is inevitable. Everything is changing around us, but sometimes we don't like or don't want to change. How can we change the appearance of the garden center? How can we change our rules and regulations? How can we change to better service our customers? Try to think about your business, how long has it been since you reviewed your advertising, modernized your newsletter or updated your care sheets? How long has it been since you changed your delivery policy?

Let's face it, no one likes to make changes. It is so much easier to just keep doing things the same way. But we need to challenge ourselves to think about what changes we need to make to succeed in business, while providing our customers with a superior shopping experience and providing our employees with a better place to work. Just remember, the only thing that is for sure is change itself. 

-- Tom Courtright,

Orchard Nursery,

Lafayette, Calif.

Reading the Signs

I was shopping at my local grocery store recently and noticed a sign that read "4.869 APR." The sign was handwritten on a dry erase board and would never pass the sophistication test for modern POP -- even in a garden center. But it did pass the test of being the right information in the right place -- two of the most important attributes of good signage. Clearly, this sign was not advertising the price of any grocery item but the price of a mortgage. I read in this sign two potentially important trends for garden centers to incorporate into their 2004 marketing plans.

First, the sign advertising banking services in a grocery store represents an important development in retailing -- multiple products in a single location to serve a time-starved consumer: groceries and banking, fast food and gasoline, eat-in and take-out foods, salon services and women's clothes, books and coffee. For the garden center, the opportunity is to evaluate products and services that could be offered on-site to your target 80 percent female market. Those services could include garden services -- not landscaping -- but services that help the consumer use products more easily. Such service might include bed preparation, tree and shrub planting. This service could almost be classified under the heading "No shovels needed to garden." Beyond garden-related services such as this, garden centers could consider cross marketing with health care, spas, salons, caterers, art galleries, maid services or any other service the female consumer could want.

The second portent of this sign is the low rates for borrowing money that have a two-pronged impact on garden centers. Low mortgage rates make the housing market the hottest investment going. And, when people buy houses, they become garden center customers. That's the best sign I know for the coming year for our industry.

I would also suggest that cheap money makes capitol investment desirable. Nothing can improve the individual store or the industry as a whole more than creating consumer-friendly retail environments. You might even invest in better signs.

-- Judy Sharpton,

Growing Places Marketing,

Atlanta, Ga.

Develop Your Potential

In writing my predictions, I have the luxury of having seen what everyone else wrote, and they've given a lot of great ideas: maintaining pricing, tapping discretionary dollars, creating your own brand. I agree that these will all be important areas for independent garden centers this year and for many years to follow. But how are we supposed to achieve these lofty goals if we fail to develop the most important asset we have at our disposal, namely front line employees.

These people have the most contact with your customers. They are the ones who can increase sales, draw attention to that lagging department, form personal relationships with customers, maintain the store and pass along customer wants. They are the most important, and often lowest paid, people you employ.

I would argue that our industry does worse on employee training and satisfaction programs than anything else it does. Most garden centers, do not have a formal training program that would keep employees informed about new trends or products; health care and benefits, such as incentive programs or profit sharing, are hard to find, though getting better; and the overall lure for young people to view our industry as a career option is poor.

Going into 2004, I see these employee-related issues as our biggest challenge. We all recognize that service and knowledge differentiate us from the big box stores, we now need to translate that awareness into a concrete plan for developing our in-house human resources.

-- Bridget White,

Lawn & Garden Retailer,

Chicago, Ill.