Sep 28, 2007

La Niña Watch Issued for SoutheastSource: Southeast Climate Consortium

A La Niña watch has been issued by the Southeast Climate Consortium and the state climatologists of Alabama, Florida and Georgia. A watch means conditions are likely for the development of a full-fledged La Niña event.

The watch will be followed by an official La Niña declaration if development continues in the next 1-3 months.

According to the consortium, a research group aimed at aiding the use of climate forecasts in agriculture, forestry and water resources, the tropical Pacific Ocean is now poised to slip into a full-fledged La Niña. Chances are strong that La Niña conditions will develop, strengthen and persist through the fall and winter months. This follows months of cooler-than-normal water temperatures near the coast of South America.

La Niña is commonly thought of as the opposite of El Niño. Under La Niña conditions, sea surface temperatures along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean are a few degrees colder than normal for a minimun of five months. La Niña typically returns every 2-7 years.

La Niña conditions usually bring a warmer and drier cool season (October through March) to Florida, central and lower Alabama, and central and south Georgia.

With the arrival of La Niña, there is a good chance that drought conditions, currently ranging from exceptional across much of Alabama and Georgia to moderate in South Florida, will continue and possibly worsen throughout the winter and into next spring.

Growers that do not have irrigation capability have a high risk of being seriously impacted by the winter drought. An increase risk of wildfires during the winter and spring wildfire season in the three states is also expected.

The Southeast Climate Consortium estimated the probability of normal or above rainfall for January 2008 was 8 percent for central Florida. The chance of moderately dry conditions is 20 percent, and there is a 72-percent chance of very dry conditions. For the panhandle of Florida, South Georgia, and lower Alabama, the probability of normal or above rainfall in January 2008 is 20 percent, the probability of moderately dry conditions is 50 percent, and for very dry conditions the probability is 30 percent.

For more information on the developing La Niña and its potential impact, go to www.agclimate.org.